I may be wrong, but my sense is that a full reversal is unlikely.  Just as President Biden did not undo the tariffs imposed on China by the first Trump administration, what is the likelihood that a future US administration, either Democrat or Republican will repudiate the America First policies and revert to free market globalism?  Now and then, one gets an administration that moves the policy consensus (Teddy Roosevelt on trust busting, FDR on the New Deal, LBJ on civil rights, Reagan on liberal globalism) and whether one likes it or not, this might be one of those occasions.  Arguing in favor of liberalized trade with countries with lower wage economies or significant industrial subsidies, is going to be a tough political argument to make in the USA, however much the economists (or The Economist) endorse it. 

That doesn’t mean that trade agreements with similarly structured economies should be off limits and a deal between the US and the UK seems to be the most likely, the one with the fewest threshold challenges and the one with the most support. We know that there has been a lot of work done by negotiating teams from both governments (and we give a lot of credit to the UK team) and we urge both sides to find the solutions to the unresolved issues.  In the meantime, there are 10% tariffs on all exports to the USA (with some exemptions) and 25% tariffs on cars and steel and aluminum products. 

Which leads me to the news that in the UK, the government has effectively nationalized, British Steel, the last producer of virgin steel using blast furnaces, after its Chinese owner was intent on closing it down.  In an echo of the first Trump administration, the UK government has cited national security issues as the reason for taking this action, in that a country that cannot produce steel has lost a fundamental part of its sovereign power.  In both cases, the object is the protection of a crucial industry, but the policy instrument being used is different. The US has used tariffs to give protection to a private company while the UK is using the blank check of nationalization to support a business that the private sector could not afford, given the volume of subsidized Chinese steel in the market.  

Setting aside the question of whether this business should ever have been owned by a Chinese company (ditto for civil nuclear and telco) the issue I was struck by was that the shiploads of coking coal needed to keep the furnaces burning are coming from Australia.  Readers may remember that a coal mine in Cumbria was set to produce this vital ingredient for steel making but planning approval was overturned by the UK High Court in 2024 on environmental grounds, so now the necessary coal has to come from the other side of the world! 

All these issues are part of the wider competition for investment that each country is engaged in and for which the UK’s forthcoming industrial strategy will provide a policy framework.  We will give a detailed analysis when the strategy is published but will continue to make the point that addressing the foundational issues of energy and employment costs will be what makes the UK as attractive a place to invest in the future as it has been in the past. 

In the meantime, some great news last week that Comcast NBC division, Universal Destinations has selected a site near Bedford in the UK for a new theme park.  We are aware of the enormous work involved by the company and by the UK government to get this project across the line and wish it every success through the planning consent process and build.   

A few things to highlight from our upcoming programming:  In addition to our usual mix of networking events and roundtables in London, New York and Washington we are hosting a Congressional Delegation led by Leader Hakeem Jeffries in London on April 22nd with Boeing, a fireside chat in our Accelerate Series with Tom Laithwaite of the eponymous wine business, on April 29th and, with thanks to EY, a special Round Table on AI investment with Investment Minister, Poppy Gustafsson on May 21st.   In NYC we also have an Accelerate event with Autogen AI founder and CEO Sean Williams on May 8th and then our Awards Gala on May 15th at the Plaza Hotel.  This year our Honorees are BAE Systems CEO, Dr. Charles Woodburn CBE, Liberty Mutual President, Neeti Bhalla Johnson and a special joint award to Delta CEO Ed Bastian and Virgin Atlantic CEO, Shai Weiss.  It promises to be a fantastic evening and if you want to show your support, there are a few places left.